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Whom does the incident benefit as it does not benefit Saudis?



11 Ekim 2018 Perşembe 09:43
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As Turkey gets more power and reputation in the Arab world, Erdogan dreamt of becoming a sunni islamic caliph and the leader of the muslim world. Pursuing this desire, Erdogan found himself intervening in Syria’s domestic affairs. While the US and the Bay states were supporting his intervention in Syria in the beginning, they were unaware of his caliphate dreams. 


When the Syrian Civil War broke out, everybody believed the Assad Regime would collapse in a short time. Therefore, both Obama administration and the Bay states, primarily Saudis, preferred to support Erdogan’s harsh politics on Syria. 


Each state had its own agenda about Syria. Many political and economic factors ranging from stopping Iran’s Shia expansion to rearranging the energy sources in the region drew various countries into the current proxy wars.


A curious scene emerged when Erdogan’s desire to get the control of Syria and become the leader of muslim world combined or paralleled with the desires of radicalized political islamist groups. Turkey turned into the guardian of radicalized groups fighting in Syria; Turkish Intelligence not only leaked into those groups but started to control them. However, controlling the radical jihadists was not that easy; some of them went out of control and turned changed into Isis, which brought about a chaotic situation.  The following factors compelled Obama administration and the Bay states to revise their politics on Syria:


• Russia and Iran’s strong support for Assad regime


• Radicalized jihadist groups’ declaring an independent state


• Realizing that Erdogan was attempting to get the control over the region and become a caliph


• Witnessing that political islamism may end up threatening the world order


• Discovering that a pro-Eurasian click which defends alliance with Russia and Iran was about to get the control over the state and bureaucracy in Turkey.


While Obama administration and the Bay countries decided to revise their Syria politics upon these factors, Erdogan administration and Qatar were the only two countries left still sticking to the harsh politics over Syria. 


Trump administration not only revised the Obama administration’s Syria politics but also managed to distance countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia from political sunni islamist ideals and directions. 


Although Erdogan keeps doing what Russia and Iran tells him to do in Syria, he has not given up on the leadership of muslim world, which he thinks he is closer to attain now, and therefore keeps supporting the jihadist groups and Muslim Brothers, who were accepted to be dangerous by many countries. 


That Mursi, whom Erdogan mentored through Turkish Intelligence, was turned over by a military coup and that the previous Saudi heir Prince Muhammed bin Nayif bin Abdulaziz, whom Erdogan had gifted a Republic Sign considering that he could control him easily, was eliminated by Muhammed bin Selman and that Bahreyn and The UAE turned their backs against Erdogan caused Erdogan to lose his reputation and credibility in Arab world. While he was considered as a good ally by Obama administration, Erdogan’s influence on Arab world was tolerated. But Trump administration did not like Erdogan’s politics and preferred to keep him away from the Bay states.


The reason why Erdogan has become such aggressive is quite clear  when one sees that the reformist role once he had taken over in the region is taken away from him by Muhammed bin Selman.


It is obvious that Erdogan is a figure famous for intervening in the home affairs of countries in the region and secretly financing some opposition groups. While the power struggle is continuing in between Saudis, it is no secret that Erdogan is supporting the previous heir prince Muhammed bin Nayif. Whoever is against Muhammed bin Selman gets his share from Erdogan’s discretionary / covert fund.  Moreover, Turkish Intelligence is pursuing or implementing several plans to materialize Erdogan’s aims and desires.


Under the light of all these facts, the disappearance of Qashoggi in Saudi Arabia Consulate in Istanbul bears a lot of questions in terms of the way it occurred and the way it was released / communicated to the world.


Jamal Qashoggi is a close friend of Erdogan, sharing the same islamist perspective with him. He is also a supporter of the previous heir prince and an opponent of the new heir Muhammed bin Selman. Besides, he is a famous and important figure because he is a citizen of the US and he writes for Washington Post.


It is claimed that he was in Turkey due to a marriage and he went to the consulate to get a document related to this marriage and told Hatice Cengiz, known to be his fiancée, that she should contact Yasin Aktay, one of Erdogan’s advisors, in case he does not return from the consulate.  


The incident occurred on October 2, 2018 at 13:14. Jamal Qashoggi did not take his cell phone with him while going to the consulate. 


That Jamal Qashoggi told his fiancée to contact Turkish officials in case he did not return shows that he was aware of the risks of going to the consulate.  Then,


1. Why did he choose to go himself to pick a document which he could get via his lawyers from any consulate including the US embassy?


2. Why did not he take his cell phone with himself?


3. Although Jamal Qashoggi went in the consulate at 13:14 and although he had warned his fiancée to contact the Turkish officials in case he did not come back, why did Hatice Sonmez prefer to wait until 16:40 without contacting or informing anybody?


4. Erdogan’s advisor Yasin Aktay says he learned about the incident at 16:40 and immediately informed Erdogan. Did anybody contact the Saudi consulate on behalf of Erdogan or Turkish state immediately? 


5. While the incident was still unclear, Turkish officials told the world press including Reuters and Washington Post that;


a) Jamal Qashoggi was murdered,


b) His body was dismembered and transferred out of the consulate,


c) Saudi Arabia sent a 15-member assassination squad to the consulate to kill Qashoggi, and


d) The body was dumped to somewhere else.


6. Although Erdogan learnt as of 16:40 on the same day that Jamal Qashoggi did not leave the consulate, why did not he give a press release immediately but instead waited until rumours about his death spread and stated one day later  that nothing certain can be said about his being murdered.


7. Although Yasin Aktay formerly said that it was too late when he learned about the incident and wrote a piece telling he was very sorry as they could not do anything to stop his being murdered violently, why did he change his discourse one day later and said that they cannot tell anything as there is not a body (Qashoggi’s corpse) found.


8. Why did Yasin Aktay condemn and allege the Saudi administration and the prince right away but then change his discourse and imply to the Arab media that some deep state clicks may be involved in the incident independently from the Saudi administration?


9. Does it really make sense that Saudi heir prince may have attempted to get a worldly famous figure assassinated in a Saudi consulate while he already maintained good relations with the USA and spent billions of dollars to announce and advertise his reformist   policies all over the world? 


10. Why would Saudi administration take the kind of the step which would alarm the whole world and turn international policy makers against themselves? Or did they really?


11. Let’s ask the most crucial question now: Who does this incident benefit as it obviously does not benefit Saudis?


We can ask many questions.


We cannot say anything at the time about how Qashoggi incident will be finalized. 


However, what draws the attention at first is some clicks who want to put Saudi administration in a difficult situation are involved in the incident and they smartly used some Trojan horses…